A surplus value model based on expected fWAR over the first seven years (WAR_7) as teams are incentivized to hold players in Triple-A until they gain an extra year of service. Looking at first seven years of a career should better estimate how much WAR is produced before free agency. Expected WAR_7 (WARE_7) is calculated based on the position type (batter or pitcher), school type (high school or college) along with when they were drafted. The difference between WAR_7 and WARE_7 creates surplus WAR_7 (sWAR_7). Using a Net Present Value of the dollar/fWAR framework for the first seven years of club control, the surplus value (SV) is created. After calculating an estimated surplus value (ESV) based on the draft position. Then surplus over expectation (SVOE) is how much extra value the player provided over their first seven seasons.
Dollars are in millions. * is a compensatory draft pick. Debut or expected debut before or during the 2019 season. Only players that signed are included
To filter by year, search the year. Can filter by team and year by searching the year and then typing the team name in the column. Can select the variables to display by using the “column visibility” button, where the sort and filter options work within each change in visibility. Currently, for the Player Draft Value tab the WAR_7, WARE_7, sWAR_7, SV, ESV, and SVOE columns are hidden. For the Team Draft Value the WARE_7, sWAR_7, SV, ESV, and SVOE columns are hidden.