MLB Draft

The landing page for MLB Draft modeling and prospect rankings. In the sub menu underneath this MLB Draft, there are options to go to the draft evaluation model, which includes both the player value and team value. The draft model calculates an estimated WARE_7 model, in other words it estimated how much WAR a player will produce over their first seven years in the MLB. Using a net present value approach for the dollar/WAR framework, an estimated surplus value (ESV) is calculated. Used together, a player’s surplus WAR (sWAR_7) and surplus value over expectation (SVOE) is calculated. It is also aggregated at the team level. The years are 2000-2015 and will be updated each year and will include the 2016 draft at the end of the 2020 MLB season.

The Big Boards tab provides a list to the consensus rankings of the MLB Draft. It includes Kiley McDaniel’s list at ESPN, FanGraphs list from Eric Longenhagen, Keith Law at The Athletic, Baseball America, and MLB Pipeline. Since some of these outlets require a subscription, only the consensus ranking is produced.